American League MVP Race

The race for American League MVP might be the first great battle between the old and the new methods of determining a players value. For those not familiar with the controversy we have Miguel Cabrera in Detroit with a very valid chance of winning the first Triple Crown in baseball since Carl Yastrzemski with the Red Sox in 1967. And yet most feel that Mike Trout, the super rookie of the California Angels will win the award. Trout's case is bolstered by the statistic of the moment, WAR, or Wins Against Replacement Value. This number purports to determine how many wins a player provides his team above what an average player at his position would provide. Trout is far and away the leader in this category, in fact, he is the only player in baseball with a double digit number in this category. Interestingly if you ask players they almost unanimously pick Cabrera. Of course there is likely to be a possible anti rookie bias in this sort of thing but we must understand that players, like most of us, were raised on the big three numbers. Homeruns, RBI's and Batting Average were the three totems that determine value. I can attest that growing up a Red Sox fan and hearing about how Ted Williams did not win the batting title when he hit .406, nor in a season when he won the triple crown, I was mortified. At that time of course it was the press and an anti Williams bias that worked against Williams but what this makes clear is that while not frequent these controversy's do arise. Red Sox fans will remember a ballot a few years ago when a New York sportswriter left Pedro Martinez off a ballot completely for MVP. In the end it might well come down to who makes the playoffs. Trout and Cabrera both could make the playoffs and both could miss, perhaps that will be the deciding factor. If I had a vote, I love Trout, he has won me about five fantasy leagues this year, in fact in August a competitor offered me Cabrera for him and,though I could not believe I was doing it, I turned him down, still for MVP I cannot turn away from the the numbers Cabrera has put up. Of course if Trout steals and runs his way into the playoffs in the next three days I reserve the right to change my vote.